Let the official count begin

It is probably time for the Comelec Chairman to resign if not the whole institution of the COMELEC to fold tent or close shop – given the events before, during, and after the elections of May 14, 2007. It does not have to await the report of the 25-member International Observers Mission to be made public which would presumably outline how the avowed honest, orderly, peaceful, elections have actually failed.

If COMELEC folds tent, two supposed-to-be reputable polling circuits may follow suit especially so that their survey results before election day may – to some extent – been found of setting the trend. Not unlikely, the names of candidates in their top 12 charts may have been voted in by those who believe in the accuracy of poll surveys. Likewise, it is not unlikely that these polling circuits may have raked a lot of profits from its paying patrons who contributed money to commission the surveys.

Ironically, both SWS and Pulse Asia failed to capture the real ranking order as well as the names of those in the real winning circle of 12 senators by way of partial and unofficial results from various organizations like AMA, STI, or NAMFREL. Either that SWS or Pulse Asia has “undemocratized” its results or “democratize” them – as best as possible within some concessional limits. What struck any statistician or historian is their obvious failure to capture Antonio Trillanes and where he should have been ranked in the given scheme and scene. With that alone, there is sufficient reason to believe, both survey results of SWS and Pulse Asia were bogus. I hate to think that they could be the kind of “push-polling circuits” in a virtual tug-of-war for supremacy.

Further, for either SWS or Pulse Asia to have ranked Ralph Recto in the 7th place in the senatorial preferences – is grossly misleading. At ground level, it is not so. Again, placing Vicente Sotto III in the 13th place and Aquilino Pimentel in the 14 – are in both cases, statistically incongruous. Both SWS and Pulse Asia in so far as their published ranking orders of senatorial preferences are concerned could be said to have really went off the mark. The parameters they used, the methods they used, the assumptions they used – may indicate ‘real systems breakdown’ altogether.

We have been invaded with a lot of pre-election surveys from polling circuits, early election results from various quick-counts organizations (AMA, STI, Namfrel) – only to be given conflicting facts and figures. And when it is time for COMELEC to do the real canvassing, what assurances, if any, could we have that all derogatory observations will not be lumped into the realm of “noted” or placed in the back burner?

What is quite therapeutic here is that at least, there are early indications that the 12-0 hype for Team Unity was a mere farce, a hoax, and a grand bluff. Truth is, those who know their political calculus can say that it will actually be a 12-0 win in favor of the real opposition wing. In this elections, even at the local level itself which Team Unity has earlier claimed to dominate, the opposition candidates are winning. If there ought to be a number loser in this May 17, 2007, it is no less than PGMA. The spectre of an opposition-dominated Senate, an opposition-dominated House of Representatives as well as those in the LGUs will not usher well for PGMA’s remaining term.

If Nene Pimentel will mouth his earlier prediction now, it would be more closely a believable forecast, even imminent. So, could it be that “GMA’s days are numbered” – true or not? It should be configured whether the emerging bunch of political dynasty practitioners would be a class of anti-GMA politicians or a class of pro-GMA politicians. Let the official count begin!